The Fourth Turning by William Strauss and Neil Howe

I've spent the better part of this summer digesting this historical and sociological survey, a receommendation to me by our fearless leader and fellow Writers-read-er, Ed Eubanks.

Strauss and Howe's basic idea is that in the modern world, human history runs cyclically. Each cycle, or saeculum, runs roughly 80-100 years, following the same basic pattern. The cycle starts with a culture quaking Crisis -- not just an ordinary challenge, but a complete re-organization of societal structure, clearly differentiating the old era from the new. When the Crisis is resolved, society enters into a golden age or High. In the High, victors are celebrated, structures cohere anew, and values are commonly held. However, the High eventually creates a hollowness that gives birth to a spiritual crisis or Awakening. In this season, people focus on the interior life (not just spiritually, but also self-fulfillment). Such a protracted time of self-focus ushers in the next phase, called the Unravelling, in which society fragments, everyone doing what is right in their own eyes. Finally, the unravelling precipitates a new Crisis that reshapes society, thus the cycle begins anew.

Driving this cycle, say Strauss and Howe, are the dynamics of generations. Every 20 years or so, a new generation is born and shaped by the times in which they are reared. These generations, as they mature and come into their own, respond to cultural events in in ways that advance the cycle. For instance, a confident Hero generation is needed to resolve a crisis. However the children who are old enough to live through the crisis, but not participate in the resolution, are not part of that Hero generation. They are sheltered and cherished, but also know to keep their place while the adults are about serious business. They learn how to compromise, get along, and be clever and creative -- they are called the Artist generation. The Artists are more subtle and nuanced -- when they come into their own, the Crisis has been resolved to a High, and the Artists take on the role of building the new golden society with all the subtlety, deference to elders, and nuance that they've learned. Their children are safe, nurtured, cherished, and have never experienced the bone shaking Crisis. These children grow up believing they can do anything and that they're entitled to just about everything -- thus becoming a new generation of Prophets proclaiming the self and the inner life. When the Prophet generation comes into their own, they usher in the Awakening period -- but they are often so busy doing so that they leave their children unprotected and on their own. The price of self-fulfillment is the nurture of their children. These children become a Nomad generation who must be tough, clever, and self-reliant -- but they never earn the respect of their Prophet antecedents. As these Nomad children come into their own, they drive the fragmentation as they take care of themselves in the chaotic world that has been engendered.

Crisis, High, Awakening, Unravelling. Hero, Artist, Prophet, Nomad. It all looks good on paper -- but the most valuable part of the text is where Strauss and Howe trace the pattern as it re-occurs in Anglo-American history going all the way back to the Wars of the Roses. They break down history into 20-30 year chunks showing the generations as they rise in each. It's quite eerie to see the pattern in America -- particularly as it leads up to the last two great Crises (the Civil War and the Great Depression/World War 2).

Even more chilling is their prediction that we are entering a new season of Crisis -- the 60s and 70s were our Awakening period followed by the Unravelling of the 80s and 90s (anyone remember the me decades?). This book was authored in 1997, and they predict that sometime in the middle of the 00 decade, we will see a precipitating event that will tip us toward a crisis that will shake our culture to its roots. Think 9/11 and look at the escalating tensions in the world, and this prediction will strike you as a bit spooky.

Strauss and Howe offer a few suggestions as to how society and individuals can weather the crisis ahead. Christians should welcome these suggestions as returns to basic spiritual disciplines: simplicity, community, honesty, being good to those around you. Some readers might find the concept of the turning of generations to be a bit objectionable -- a kind of warmed over Stoicism that doesn't allow the Holy Spirit free reign. However this is not entirely the case -- a historic pattern is not future destiny nor is it authoritative prediction. Rather, it is but a record of how fallen humanity has historically functioned. God, in His sovereignty continues to work through the cycles of history -- Christians shouldn't get too disturbed by the idea of the turning of history.

Simply said, this is an interesting read, particularly for history buffs. It should challenge us to examine our life practices while we have liesure to do so.

Soli Deo Gloria
Russell